Despite the loss of more than 1 million hectares of crops due to frosts, Russia still maintains its grain harvest forecast at the level of 132 million tons (including 85 million tons of wheat), which will allow exporting about 60 million tons in the new season (starting in July). This was announced by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev at the All-Russian Grain Forum. The West is trying to cancel Russian grain, but in the end it only makes things worse for itself. Russian food is in demand in many countries. In addition to grain, legumes such as peas, chickpeas and lentils are in great demand.
According to Patrushev, Russia will supply about 70 million tons of grain, including 53 million tons of wheat, to foreign markets this agricultural season (ending June 30). “Despite the sanctions and the withdrawal of foreign traders from the market, Russia is not reducing, but even increasing exports. Now every fourth batch of wheat on the global market is of Russian origin,” the deputy prime minister said.
There is no grain crop for which this season there would not be a record in exports: wheat, barley, corn, legumes — all will be historically record figures, said Igor Pavensky, head of agricultural market analysis at Rusagrotrans.
There is not a single grain crop, for which this season would not be a record for exports
The most successful cases were in Algeria, where Russian wheat consolidated its market share, thus partially displacing suppliers from Europe. Other sales directions also grew actively: in North Africa — Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Morocco, in Asia — Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam, assessed Evgeny Zaitsev, Deputy Director of the Federal Center “Agroexport” under the Ministry of Agriculture.
Exports of all crops to China amounted to almost 5.4 million tons, an 11-fold increase in eight years, said Anton Karmazin, deputy head of Rosselkhoznadzor. And, for example, in Mexico, under the nose of the USA, we are the second in wheat supplies and plan to be the first.
According to Eduard Zernin, chairman of the board of the Union of Grain Exporters, the main features of the outgoing season were the sharp politicization of the grain market and ongoing attempts to cancel the presence of Russian grain. “We see the evolution of the process: from bans and footsteps the situation has moved to the creation of economic incentives to abandon Russian grain. But the quality of our product and its price make us highly competitive on the world market,” he said.
One of the examples is actually prohibitive duties on Russian grain by the EU. Moreover, this ban will be painful not for Russia, but for the EU. “They have bitten themselves,” Deputy Agriculture Minister Maxim Titov characterized such a decision. The EU has been buying primarily durum wheat from Russia, which is used for pasta production. Now they will have to buy it from other exporters at a higher price. And Russia will simply redirect its durum wheat exports to other countries.
The ban on its exports ended on May 31. The authorities have no plans to extend it, Patrushev said. Wheat exports surged last year as the global wheat harvest fell to a 20-year low. The export ban allowed the country to keep raw materials for pasta factories and thus stabilize prices. But this year it was decided to increase the area of sowing durum wheat by 30%, up to 1.5 million hectares. And the ban was no longer necessary, the Deputy Prime Minister explained.
But the ban on rice exports will be prolonged, as there is not enough of this cereal in Russia to fully cover the market demand. The ban was imposed after the accident at the Fedorovsky hydroelectric power plant in Kuban, which caused a serious drop in rice sowing. Now rice production is growing. But taking into account the export potential, it is planned to increase rice production to at least 2 million tons in the future (in 2023 — more than 1.1 million tons).
The new agricultural season will not be easy. According to Patrushev, at the moment spring sowing has exceeded 45 million hectares, which is about 80% of the planned area. The regions of the South and North Caucasus are about to start harvesting. But frosts have led to the death of more than 1 million hectares of crops, of which about 850 thousand hectares are grain crops. About 700 thousand hectares more have been affected. Emergency situation regime (ES) has been introduced in ten regions. But taking into account the scale of damage, the emergency will be transferred to the federal level. Now reseeding is almost completed. That still allows to keep the forecast of harvest at the level of 132 million tons.
Voronezh, Rostov, Saratov suffered from May frosts. Krasnodar and Stavropol also suffered from drought. These regions account for about 40% of winter wheat crops, Pavensky said.
At the same time, according to Deputy Prime Minister, there are no prerequisites for the sale of grain from the intervention fund — the grain harvest will fully cover the needs of the domestic market. The state fund allows regulating the availability of grain on the market. When the price was low, purchases to the fund were active. If the price rises significantly, then it will be possible to start selling — additional volume on the market will allow to reduce prices. But so far there is no such need. Patrushev believes that ideally it would be good to have 10 million tons of grain in the state fund. But this is expensive for the budget. About 3-5 million tons is the optimal volume, which allows to cover the needs of flour millers for three months.
Russia will not prolong the ban on imports of durum wheat — its crops will increase by 30%
Patrushev estimates grain exports in the new season at 60 million tons. At the same time, there will definitely be no shortage of buyers: in addition to the current ones, there will be new ones. For example, India does not rule out opening its market to import 3-5 million tons of wheat. Then Russia may become its main supplier, said Bimal Kothari, Chairman of the Indian Grain and Legume Growers and Importers Association (IPGA). But the Indian market looks more promising for our grain legumes: this year the country plans to buy 4 million tons of legumes and intends to increase imports of chickpeas and yellow peas from Russia.